Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic storm is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around March 21 while the system may reach Bangladesh and adjoining north Myanmar coast by the morning of March 23, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted today.
The existing low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal is likely to move east-northeastwards and become a well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea around the morning of March 19, the IMD said.
Thereafter, it is likely to move north-northwestwards initially along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands, intensify into a depression by the morning of March 20 and into a cyclonic storm around March 21. It would then continue to move north-northwestwards till March 22, the agency said.
It will then move north-northeastwards and reach near Bangladesh and adjoining north Myanmar coast by the morning of March 23, the IMD added.
The system will be named as ‘Cyclone Asani’ if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.
However, there will be no impact of the forecasted system on Odisha. The state is unlikely to experience rainfall or heavy wind due to the system, said IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
The IMD in its tropical weather outlook said today that numerical models including IMD GFS, ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble are indicating likelihood of formation of depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea by 0000 UTC of 20th March with subsequent intensification into a cyclonic storm around 21st March.
However, there is variation among these models w.r.t. peak intensity with IMD GFS indicating higher intensity and ECMWF indicating intensification up to marginal cyclonic storm only. There is good consensus among these models w.r.t. movement of system towards the Bangladesh and adjoining Myanmar coast, it added.
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