Bhubaneswar: While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the formation of a low pressure area over the south Andaman Sea around November 30, the predicted system may intensify into a cyclone as probability of cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal after 96-120 hours is ‘High’, as per the agency.
Current sea and environmental conditions are conducive for development of cyclonic disturbance over Gulf of Thailand and its sustenance and intensification over the Andaman Sea region, the IMD said in a tropical weather outlook issued today.
Majority of the models indicate emergence of cyclonic disturbance from Gulf of Thailand over south Andaman Sea around 30th November with initial west-northwestward movement and intensification into depression and cyclonic storm, subsequently.
However, there is large divergence among various models w.r.t. date of genesis (formation of depression), intensification and direction of movement.
GFS group of models is indicating emergence of a cyclonic storm from Gulf of Thailand by night of 30th November while NCUM group and ECMWF are indicating emergence of low pressure area into Andaman Sea around 1st December and formation of depression around 2nd December, the IMD said.
The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.
The Bay of Bengal may witness another cyclonic storm as environmental conditions are favourable for the same.
As per Skymet Weather Services, environmental conditions will support intensification of the forecasted system. Two decisive factors– sea surface temperature and wind shear– will help in the growth and sustenance of the system for few days, after the formation of low pressure area.
Such perturbation over the oceanic surface has the potential to become tropical storm. Climatology and the seasonal aspects also favor formation of storm around this time of the year, said Skymet.
Northeast monsoon season usually witnesses one or two storms originating over Andaman Sea or an offshoot of remnant system from Gulf of Thailand. However, the maiden storm is yet to form during the season, this year. Hence, the possibility of the cyclone formation is fairly high, it said.
Such storms generally head towards Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Also, some of them reach close to the coast and start recurving, it added.