Cyclone Jawad may form over Bay of Bengal around December 4-5: IMD

Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area is likely to form over south Andaman Sea around November 29 while the forecasted system may intensify into a cyclone over Bay of Bengal around December 4-5, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.

Intensity of the system is predicted to be that of a depression by majority of the weather models by 3rd December and further intensification into a severe category cyclone during subsequent 24-48 hours, the agency said.

Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble are indicating that a fresh low pressure system would form over south Andaman Sea during 29th November–1st December (variation among the models as GFS group indicates low pressure area formation on 29th November and NCUM group on 1st December), the IMD said.

All models indicate west-northwestward movement for the initial 2 days, followed by northwestward and then northward & northeastward track upto 4th or 5th December, it said.

The Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) of IMD also indicates potential zone over Andaman Sea on 30th November and 1st December. Though all these models are in agreement with the potential genesis and intensification over the Bay of Bengal, as on November 25, there is large uncertainty with respect to the likely movement.

“It may be concluded that a Low Pressure area is likely to form over south Andaman Sea & neighbourhood during the latter half of week -1 (26.11.2021-02.12.2021). After moving west-northwestwards, it could concentrate into a Depression towards the end of week-1, further intensify and move northward/ north-northeastwards towards central & adjoining north Bay of Bengal during the first half of week-2 (03.12.2021-09.12.2021). Accordingly a ‘moderate’ probability is assigned for cyclogenesis (formation of a Depression) over southeast BoB towards the end of week 1 and over central parts of the BoB during the initial half of week 2,” the IMD added.

Impact Expected and Action Suggested:

Squally weather with maximum sustained wind speed reaching 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over the genesis area (Andaman Sea and neighbourhood) during 30th November to 2nd December. Fishermen are advised to be cautious and avoid venturing into genesis area during 30th November to 2nd December. Tourists, boats and small ships are also advised to be cautious while venturing into sea during the period.

Adverse weather is likely to prevail over central and north BoB as the system moves further. Fishermen are advised to be cautious and avoid venturing into central and north BoB during 2nd to 5th December.

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