Cyclone may form over Arabian Sea; Here’s what models indicate about its movement

Bhubaneswar: A depression is likely to form over the Arabian Sea around November 7 which may intensify into a cyclonic storm during the subsequent 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued yesterday.

Models indicate that the forecasted cyclonic storm may initially move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast (10th–12th November), followed by northeastward re-curvature towards Makran coast and weakening during 13th–14th November.

“NCUM and its ensemble (NEPS) are showing likely formation of a Depression over east-central AS around 7th November, its further intensification into a Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 48 hours, initial west-northwestward movement towards Oman coast (10th–12th November) followed by northeastward re-curvature towards Makran coast & weakening during 13th–14th November. IMD GPP index is also indicating a significant zone for cyclogenesis over east-central AS, mainly on 6th & 7th November over east-central AS,” the IMD said.

The agency in its bulletin issued today said, “The low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area now lies over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level. It is likely to move north-northwestwards and become a well marked low pressure area over east central Arabian Sea during next 24 hours and concentrate into a depression over the same region during the subsequent 24 hours. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards away from the west coast of India.”

In another weather-related development, a low pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood around November 9, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. There are chances of intensification of the possible system and movement towards north Tamil Nadu coast.

The forecasted system is likely to intensify into a depression over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Sri Lanka around November 11.

“NCEP GFS model is indicating likely formation of a Depression over southwest BoB and adjoining north Sri Lanka around 11th November, its further intensification and movement towards north Tamil Nadu coast during the subsequent 24 hours, followed by weakening,” the IMD said.