Cyclone Sitrang in October 2022: Here’s what models indicate about landfall place, time

Bhubaneswar: As the Bay of Bengal is very likely to host cyclone ‘Sitrang’ in a few days, various weather models have indicated about the place and time of its landfall.

As per a report by the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) dated 17 October 2022, NCUM and GFS groups are indicating landfall over North Andhra Pradesh coast while ECMWF is indicating landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast.

Below are model-wise predictions regarding place and time of the landfall, as mentioned in the report.

IMD-GFS: GFS is indicating that the system would cross North Andhra Pradesh in the early hours of 25th October to the north of Srikakulam near 18.5/84.0.

NCMRWF-NCUM: The system would cross North Andhra Pradesh coast near 18N/82E around 23rd October night, as a Severe Cyclonic Storm over North Andhra Pradesh coast on 24th October.

NCMRWF-NEPS: The system would cross North Andhra Pradesh coast as a Severe Cyclonic Storm in the night of 23rd October.

ECMWF: The system would cross Sunderbans as Cyclonic Storm/ Severe Cyclonic Storm in the midnight of 25th October near 21.8/88.8.

NCEP-GFS: The system would cross North Andhra Pradesh around 0600 UTC of 26th October near 18.5/84.0.

A cyclonic circulation has already formed over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood.

Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 20, the IMD said.

The system is likely to move west ­northwestwards towards west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and become more marked during the subsequent 48 hours, it added.