Falling exports, rainfall, rupee value dent markets

Mumbai, Aug 17:

A sharp fall in July trade data, the rupee value, and monsoon rainfall and diminishing hopes of a rate cut disappointed investors, leading to a barometer index of the Indian equity markets closing 189 points down on Monday.

stock_exchange sensexThe barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) fell by 0.67 percent as profit booking followed a healthy rally on August 14.

The Sensex had rallied 518 points on August 14, on the back of expectations of further economic reforms and healthy macro-data.

Bearish sentiments also ruled on the wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It ended the day’s trade 41.25 points or 0.48 percent down at 8,477.30 points.

The S&P BSE Sensex which opened at 28,093.54 points, closed at 27,878.27 points — down 189.04 points or 0.67 percent from the previous day’s close at 28,067.31 points.

The Sensex touched a high of 28,095.97 points and a low of 27,739.13 points in the intra-day trade.

Analysts cited the sharp fall in the exchanges as a reaction to July’s trade data and profit-booking.

“The markets reacted negatively to the fall in July trade data. The trade data showed a sharp fall. The fall comes at a times when international markets are slowing down, Asian currencies are devaluing and commodity prices are shrinking,” Anand James, co-head, technical research desk, Geojit BNP Paribas told IANS.

Exports during last month fell by 10.30 percent at $231.37 billion from $257.92 billion during July, last year. Exports during June stood at $222.89 billion.

“There was also profit booking after Friday’s rally. Investors were seen reluctant to chase higher prices due to uncertain international markets and no new triggers,” James added.

Dipen Shah, head of private client group research with Kotak Securities predicted that the markets will continue to remain volatile till further clarity about the passage of the GST (goods and services tax) bill emerges.

“Monsoon also continues to remain a worry and this can be a factor which can partly influence RBI’s (Reserve Bank of India) rate cut decision,” Shah said.

Official data showed that the monsoon rainfall deficit widened from 6 to 10 percent for the August period.

Other worries such as a volatile rupee due to yuan devaluation and its impact on the RBI’s rate decision further depressed sentiments.

The rupee ended Monday at Rs.65.33 to a US dollar touching a new two-year low. Rupee devalued around 5 percent as the People’s Bank of China has let yuan fall by 4.6 percent since August 11.

This has been the biggest devaluation in the Chinese currency since 1994. The devaluation of yuan, intended to boost Chinese exports, has made investment in China cheaper.

The rupee had hit its lowest level in 24 months on August 13 at Rs.65.23 to a greenback. It had ended last week (August 14) at Rs.64.99 against a US dollar.

“Continued depreciation of rupee, another devaluation of Chinese currency and subdued corporate earnings for the quarter ended June 2015 weighed on the investors sentiment,” said Gaurav Jain, director with Hem Securities.

Sector-wise, healthy buying was observed in consumer durables, banks and metals stocks.

However, capital goods, automobile, oil and gas, healthcare and information technology (IT) sectors came under intense selling pressure.

The S&P BSE consumer durables augmented by 122.24 points, bank index gained by 109.31 points and metal index rose by 101.82 points.

On the other hand, the S&P BSE capital goods index plunged by 177.58 points, automobile index receded by 123.79 points, oil and gas index plummet by 92.19 points, healthcare index declined by 58.24 points and IT index fell by 37.82 points.

Major Sensex gainers during Monday’s trade were: Tata Steel, up 3.99 percent at Rs.246.55; State Bank of India (SBI), up 3.95 percent at Rs.279.05; GAIL, up 2.17 percent at Rs.345.50; Sun Pharma, up 0.83 percent at Rs.906.40; and Coal India, up 0.68 percent at Rs.380.

The major Sensex losers were: Cipla, down 4.95 percent at Rs.703.85; Hindalco Inds, down 2.63 percent at Rs.90.85; ONGC, down 2.37 percent at Rs.264.15; Hero MotoCorp, down 2.23 percent at Rs.2,653.50; and Dr.Reddy’s Lab, down 1.99 percent at Rs.4,173.15.

Among the Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.49 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, however, fell by 0.74 percent.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX Index inched up by 0.36 percent and French CAC 40 rose by 0.50 percent at the closing bell here. However, the London FTSE 100 index slipped by 0.18 percent. (IANS)

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