Possible cyclone ‘Mocha’ over Bay of Bengal: Here’s what models indicate

Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around 7th May while some weather models are indicating that the system may intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its Tropical Weather Outlook today.

As per the outlook, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around 6th May. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region around 7th May. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours.

Further intensification and movement of the system is being tracked. Some models indicate that the system may further intensify into a cyclonic storm, the outlook added.

Below are model-wise predictions regarding the system:

  • IMD GFS is indicating a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 7th May, intensifying into a cyclonic storm on 9th May near Andaman Islands and moving nearly north-northeastwards towards eastcentral BoB till 11th May, skirting the Andaman Islands on way.
  • ECMWF is indicating an LPA over South Andaman Sea around 7th May, depression over southeast BoB and adjoining South Andaman Sea around 9th May with gradual north-northeastwards movement and intensification into cyclonic storm near Andaman Islands.
  • Both GFS and ECMWF are indicating further intensification into severe category storm.
  • ECMWF ensemble is indicating likely development of low pressure area around 8th/9th May, depression around 10th May and cyclonic storm around 11th May.
  • Most of the ensemble member models are indicating initial northwestwards movement with northeastwards recurvature over central BoB.

The system will be named as cyclone ‘Mocha’ if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.

Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik today chaired a high-level meeting in view of the possible formation of cyclone ‘Mocha’ over the Bay of Bengal.

Recalling cyclone ‘Fani’ of 2019, the CM said determination of path of cyclones during summer season is difficult. He directed the concerned officials and departments to be in readiness to tackle any kind of eventuality.

He also advised for shifting of people residing in low-lying and vulnerable areas to cyclone shelters, if necessary.

The CM directed to prepare plans in advance for relief and restoration works in the aftermath of cyclone.

He also directed the Chief Secretary to review the situation regularly and asked the Special Relief Commissioner to work in coordination with all departments.

Chief Secretary Pradip Kumar Jena said all efforts will be made to ensure zero casualty during the calamity. All Collectors have been alerted in this regard. Around 1000 cyclone shelters are in readiness while more safe places including school buildings have been identified, the official said.

On the other hand, Special Relief Commissioner Satyabrata Sahu said control rooms have been prepared after holding discussion with Collectors of 18 districts. As many as 17 NDRF and 20 ODRAF teams have been kept ready, he said.

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