Bhubaneswar: While a cyclonic storm is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around May 9, the IMD-GFS weather model indicated that the system may move towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its Tropical Weather Outlook issued today.
The outlook further said that all models are indicating intensification of the system up to a very severe category storm.
IMD GFS is indicating a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) around 7th May, depression around 8th May and cyclonic storm around 9th May. It is indicating north-northwestwards movement till 10th May and northeastwards recurvature thereafter towards southeast Bangladesh and adjoining Myanmar coasts. Intensification up to very severe cyclonic storm category is indicated, the outlook mentioned.
ECMWF model is indicating an LPA over southeast BoB around 7th May, depression over southeast BoB and adjoining south Andaman Sea around 9th May with gradual north-northwestwards movement and intensification into cyclonic storm around 10th May. It is indicating north-northeastwards recurvature from 11th May onwards towards Myanmar coast, the outlook said.
All models are indicating intensification into a very severe category storm. However, there is large variation among various models today, with respect to track, the outlook added.
Hence to conclude, a cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over southeast Bay of Bengal around 6th May. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region around 7th May. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region on 8th May. Thereafter, there is a good possibility of its intensification into a cyclonic storm while moving nearly northwards towards central BoB, the outlook concluded.
The system is under constant watch and being monitored regularly. The details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of low pressure area, said the IMD.
The system will be named as Cyclone ‘Mocha’ if it becomes a cyclonic storm.
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