Bhubaneswar: While a depression is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 27th November, the system may intensify into a cyclonic storm, indicated GFS group of models.

As per the North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most of the models including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble are indicating likely emergence of a cyclonic circulation into south Andaman Sea around 25th November with formation of a low pressure area around 26th November over south Andaman Sea. These models are also indicating formation of depression over south BoB during 26th-30th November (IMD GFS around 26th, NCEP GFS on 27th and ECMWF around 30th but over southwest BoB).

GFS group of models are also indicating further intensification of this system into a severe cyclonic storm. Regarding movement, GFS group of models are indicating initial west-northwestwards movement till 28th November towards central BoB followed by north-northeastwards movement towards Bangladesh coast, the outlook said.

ECMWF is however indicating west-northwestwards movement towards west-central BoB till 2nd December and gradual northeastwards recurvature thereafter, the outlook added.

As per the official forecast of the IMD, a low pressure area is likely to form over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around 26th November. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 27th November.

The system will be named as Cyclone 'Michaung' if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.