Bhubaneswar: The cyclone season has begun as March to May is considered as the first cyclone season for the Indian seas. The Bay of Bengal may host a cyclonic storm this month with chances of formation of a low pressure area over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours.

However, forecast regarding its level of intensification and chances of cyclone formation was yet to be made. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) was yet to make any official forecast in this regard.

However, the IMD in its 'North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook' issued on March 10 had said that some models like IMD GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble and NCEP GFS indicate a cyclonic circulation formation over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by March 16.

Favourable MJO & sea conditions and various models guidance indicate development of a cyclonic circulation over the central parts of south Bay of Bengal leading to enhanced convective activity over the region, the agency had said.

Weather expert Surendranath Pasupalak said NCEP GFS model has indicated chances of change of direction of the possible system and it may not strike the coast of India. The country has not witnessed any cyclone in the month of March during the last few years. However, climate change might result in movement of the system towards India coast, he said, adding that a clear picture of the system will come to fore around March 20.

Sarat Chandra Sahu, Director of the Centre for Environment and Climate of SOA University, said some models indicate intensification of the system. It may initially move northwards and then  northwestwards. They system may change its path towards north-northeastwards direction while being around 200 km away from Odisha coast and head towards Bangladesh, said Sahu.

The system may cross the Bangladesh coast around the forenoon of March 23. Precise forecast path and speed of the system can be known on March 20, he said.

Under the influence of the system, coastal Odisha may witness light to moderate rainfall. Chances of formation of a severe cyclone are very less, he added.

Notably, the Bay of Bengal has hosted as many as six cyclonic storms in the month of March since 1901. Similarly, such storms in April usually head towards Myanmar and Bangladesh. However, the storms also have a history of striking India's coastline from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to Odisha and West Bengal.