Bhubaneswar: A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around October 17 with chances of cyclogenesis.

"Another low pressure is waiting in the wings to enter Bay of Bengal around 17th October. This weather system appears to be stronger than the current one. However, it will recurve early to largely affect West Bengal, Bihar and entire Northeast India. Bay of Bengal remains under close observation for any further development," said Skymet Weather Services.

On the other hand, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the Genesis Potential Parameter based on IMD GFS model is indicating potential zone for cyclogenesis over Gulf of Martaban on 17th October followed by a rapid shift in the zone towards northwest Bay of Bengal in the subsequent two days.

Further, MME CFSV2 ensemble is indicating 40-50% probability of cyclogenesis over south Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean between October 22 and 28. NCEP GFS model is also indicating cyclogenesis over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean during later half of October 22-October 28 with intensification and west-northwestwards movement towards west central Bay of Bengal, the IMD said.

The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.

On the other hand, renowned meteorologist Jason Nicholls said conditions may become conducive for tropical development in the southern Bay of Bengal in late October. "Way too early for details such as track but something to monitor over the next week or two," he tweeted.