Cyclone Jawad: Low Pressure to form in 48 hrs; System may head towards Odisha-Andhra coast

Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area is likely to form over north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood during the next 48 hours. The system is likely to intensify and head towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts during the subsequent 4-5 days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.

If the system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be named as Cyclone Jawad.

“A cyclonic circulation lies over north Andaman Sea & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is very likely to form over the same region during next 48 hours. It is likely to become more marked and move west-northwestwards towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts during subsequent 4-5 days,” the IMD said in its morning bulletin.

As per Skymet Weather Services, a low pressure area and remnant of a tropical storm may merge over Bay of Bengal and subsequently intensify into a severe cyclonic storm before heading towards Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coasts.

A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Gulf of Martaban and adjoining North Andaman Sea in the next 48 hours. Under its influence, a low pressure area may form over the same region on 11th October. The system will become well marked in the subsequent 24 hours. During the same period, remnant of a tropical storm from South China Sea will move across Vietnam, Laos and Thailand, and eventually merge with the system over North Andaman Sea. The merger will strengthen the low pressure area and result in cyclogenesis over central parts of Bay of Bengal around 13th October, said Skymet.

On the other hand, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in a forecast said a severe cyclone may form over Bay of Bengal and move towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts.

As per the prediction, a low pressure area over north Andaman Sea may form around October 10. It may intensify into a depression over east-central Bay of Bengal around October 14 with west-northwestwards movement towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Some models are indicating intensification of this system up to severe category of cyclonic storm.

“Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, NCEP-GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, ECMWF are indicating development of a low pressure area over north Andaman Sea around 10th October. However, GFS group of models are indicating development of depression over east-central Bay of Bengal around 14th October with west-northwestwards movement towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts. These models are also indicating intensification of this system up to severe category of cyclonic storm,” the IMD said.