Bhubaneswar: While a low pressure area is likely to form over the south Andaman Sea by November 30 with further intensification into a depression over southeast and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours, the forecasted system may skirt north Andhra Pradesh coast and cross south Odisha coast as a very severe cyclonic storm, indicated IMD-GFS model.
Date and Time of landfall as per IMD-GFS model: Around 11:30 am of December 4.
According to FDP (Cyclone) NOC Report by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) dated November 29, the IMD-GFS model indicates formation of Cyclonic Storm (CS) at 1800 UTC (11:30 pm IST) of 30th November over south Andaman Sea, persistence over the same area on 1st December, its rapid intensification into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) over southeast & adjoining east central BoB on 2nd December, over east central & adjoining west central BoB on 3rd December, over west central BoB, very close to north Andhra Pradesh coast on 4th December, moving northeastwards, skirting north Andhra Pradesh coast and crossing south Odisha coast with very severe intensity around 0600 UTC (11:30 am IST) of 4th December.
The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.
Below are predictions as per other major weather models.
NCMRWF-NCUM(Global): Presence of a CS over west central BoB off Andhra Pradesh coast on 4th December and as a Severe CS over northwest & adjoining west central BoB off south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts on 5th December.
ECMWF: CS with a very small core close to Andhra Pradesh coast at 0600 UTC (11:30 am IST) of 4th December, crossing south Odisha–north Andhra Pradesh coasts around 1500 UTC (8:30 pm) of 4th December and weakening into a Depression over south coastal Odisha at 0000 UTC (5:30 am) of 5th December.
NCEP-GFS: CS over southeast BoB and adjoining Andaman Sea on 2nd December, as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) over west central & adjoining east central BoB on 3rd December, as an ESCS over west central & adjoining northwest BoB off north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coasts on 4th December and moving along Odisha coast and weakening into a well-marked low pressure area over northwest BoB off west Bengal coast on 5th December.
Precise forecast path of the system can be determined after the formation of the low pressure area.