Cyclone Jawad: Two systems may merge, intensify into Severe Cyclone over Bay of Bengal

Sambad English Bureau Published On : Oct 8, 2021 at 10:40 PM

Bhubaneswar: In what could be termed as a rare occurrence, a low pressure area and remnant of a tropical storm may merge over Bay of Bengal and subsequently intensify into a severe cyclonic storm before heading towards Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coasts.

As per Skymet Weather Services, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Gulf of Martaban and adjoining North Andaman Sea in the next 48 hours. Under its influence, a low pressure area may form over the same region on 11th October.

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The system will become well marked in the subsequent 24 hours. During the same period, remnant of a tropical storm from South China Sea will move across Vietnam, Laos and Thailand, and eventually merge with the system over North Andaman Sea. The merger will strengthen the low pressure area and result in cyclogenesis over central parts of Bay of Bengal around 13th October, said Skymet.

On the other hand, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in a forecast said a severe cyclone may form over Bay of Bengal and move towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts.

As per the prediction, a low pressure area over north Andaman Sea may form around October 10. It may intensify into a depression over east-central Bay of Bengal around October 14 with west-northwestwards movement towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Some models are indicating intensification of this system up to severe category of cyclonic storm.

“Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, NCEP-GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, ECMWF are indicating development of a low pressure area over north Andaman Sea around 10th October. However, GFS group of models are indicating development of depression over east-central Bay of Bengal around 14th October with west-northwestwards movement towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts. These models are also indicating intensification of this system up to severe category of cyclonic storm,” the IMD said.

If the system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be named as Cyclone Jawad.