Cyclone over Bay of Bengal during May end! Will it impact Odisha?

Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic storm may form over the Bay of Bengal during the end part of this month. Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was yet to make any official forecast, the ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis’ issued by the agency on Thursday hinted in this regard.

As per the outlook, a low pressure area is likely to from over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 23rd May while there is a moderate probability for its further intensification into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea in the beginning of the ‘second week’ (May 24-May 30).

The system is likely to intensify further and move north-northeastwards during later part of the week, the outlook said.

The outlook also mentioned about various predictions regarding the forecasted system on the basis of different weather models.

As per the NCEP GFS model, a low pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around 23rd May. With initial northward movement, the system is likely to intensify gradually into a depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on 24th May and into a cyclonic storm by 25th May.

Subsequently moving west-nothrthwestward, it is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast on 26th May. It is likely to cross north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast on 27th May, as per the NCEP GFS model.

Below are other predictions on the basis of different weather models, as mentioned in the outlook.

IMD GFS is indicating formation of a low pressure area ahead of monsoon surge over southeast and adjoining Andaman Sea around 24th May. It is likely to intensify further into a depression with probable east-northeastward movement towards south Myanmar coast.

NCUM and NEPS are indicating the formation of a low pressure area around 23rd May, which is likely to move north-northeastward towards north Myanmar and Bangladesh coast and intensify into a depression on 26th May.

ECMWF ensemble is indicating low probability (less than 20 per cent) of cyclogenesis over southeast Bay of Bengal around 22nd May. The area of cyclogenesis is likely to move north-northeastwards and probability is likely to increase to 30 per cent over eastcentral Bay of Bengal during next two days, further reaching 40 per cent over north Bay of Bengal during 26 and 27th May.