Cyclone Shaheen Landfall: Here’s what models indicate about the system

Bhubaneswar: Forecasted Cyclone Shaheen over Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm. Though the precise landfall place was yet to be predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), here’s what models indicate.

“Some of the models are indicating that the system would cross Makran coast as a cyclonic storm with subsequent rapid weakening, while a few models are indicating the system to grace Pakistan-Makran coasts and move into gulf of Oman and weaken there around 5th October,” the IMD said.

Satellite derived total precipitable water vapour imagery indicates that the system is under favourable environment of warm moist air. Also, other dynamic and thermodynamic parameters including the ocean thermal energy are favourable for further intensification of the system.

The easterly winds in the mid and upper tropospheric levels are steering the system westwards. Most the models are indicating that the system would intensify further while moving west-northwestwards across north Arabian Sea. However, there is large variation w.r.t. the intensity as well as the landfall of system, the IMD added.

“Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over south Gujarat region & adjoining Gulf of Khambhat moved west-northwestwards and emerged into Gulf of Kutch, concentrated into a Depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 30th September, 2021, over northeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Kutch, near latitude 22.7°N and longitude 69.5°E, about 50 km east northeast of Devbhoomi Dwarka (Gujarat), 90 km east-southeast of Naliya (Gujarat) and 340 km east-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan),” a bulletin of the IMD issued at 8.30 AM today said.

“It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a Deep Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast during next 12 hours. Then it is very likely to move further west-northwestwards and intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 24 hours. Thereafter it is likely to continue to move west-northwestwards towards Pakistan–Makran coasts, moving away from the Indian coast,” the bulletin added.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Wind Warning

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely to prevail over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat coast and 40 – 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over east-central Arabian Sea along & off north Maharashtra coast during next 12 hours.

It would gradually increase thereafter, becoming squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast and 45 – 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over east-central Arabian Sea along & off north Maharashtra coast from the evening of today, the 30th September.

It would further increase becoming Gale wind speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over northeast & adjoining northwest Arabian Sea & along & off Pakistan – Makran coasts, 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph along & off Gujarat coast and squally wind speed reaching 40 – 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over central Arabian Sea from the evening of 1st October.

Fishermen Warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into north & adjoining central Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat & north Maharashtra coasts from 30th September till 2nd October 2021.