Forecasted Cyclone ‘Mocha’: Here’s what models indicate about landfall area, date, time

Bhubaneswar: While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was yet to make prediction regarding the landfall of forecasted Cyclone ‘Mocha’ over Bay of Bengal, various weather models have indicated about it.

The IMD GFS model is indicating depression on 9th May over southeast & adjoining south Andaman Sea with intensification into cyclonic storm on 10th May. Peak intensification is indicated up to very severe cyclonic storm stage. It is indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till 11th May and gradual north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter. Landfall is indicated around 0000 UTC (5.30 AM IST) of May 14 over Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts near 21.3N/92.5E, the IMD said in its Tropical Weather Outlook today.

ECMWF is indicating depression around 10th May and rapid intensification into severe cyclonic storm on 11th May. It is also indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till 11th May and north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter. Landfall is indicated on 15th May over Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts near 23.3N/91.5E, the outlook said.

IMD MME (IMD GFS and NCEP GFS based) is indicating similar intensification and movement with landfall over Myanmar coast near 16.2N/94.2E, the outlook added.

As per the forecast of the IMD, a low pressure area has formed over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea. It is likely to intensify into a depression on 9th May over the same region and further into a cyclonic storm over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of eastcentral Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea on 10th May.

It is likely to move initially north-northwestwards till 11th May. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve gradually and move north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts, the forecast said.