Forecasted Cyclone ‘Mocha’ may become severe over Bay of Bengal

Bhubaneswar: While a cyclonic storm is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around May 9, major weather models indicated that the system may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, as per the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today.

IMD GFS model is indicating a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 7th May, intensifying into a severe cyclonic storm on 9th May over southeast Bay of Bengal and moving nearly north-northeastwards towards eastcentral BoB till 12th May, the outlook said.

GEFS model is indicating an LPA over southeast BoB on 7th May and depression on 8th may, with further intensification into cyclonic storm on 9th May and severe cyclonic storm on 10th May, it said.

NCUM model is indicating development of an LPA over southeast BoB around 9th May with gradual northwestwards movement and intensification into depression on 10th May, cyclonic storm on 11th May and severe cyclonic storm on 12th May, the outlook mentioned.

ECMWF model is indicating an LPA over southeast BoB around 7th May, depression over southeast BoB and adjoining south Andaman Sea around 9th May with gradual north-northeastwards movement and intensification into cyclonic storm around 10th May, the outlook added.

All models are unanimously indicating nearly northwards movement, the agency said.

The system will be named as cyclone ‘Mocha’ if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.

As per the general forecast of the IMD, a cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal around 6th May. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region around 7th May. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal on 8th May.

Thereafter, there is a good possibility of its intensification while moving nearly northwards towards central Bay of Bengal, the agency said.

Details of its path and intensification will be provided after formation of low pressure area. The system is under watch and is being monitored regularly, it added.

However, the forecasted system may not affect Odisha, said IMD Director General (DG) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra today.

“As of now, there is no forecast regarding landfall over India coast. The system is unlikely to affect Odisha,” said Mohapatra.