Bhubaneswar: While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that a cyclonic storm (to be named as Cyclone 'Dana') will form over the Bay of Bengal by October 23 and head towards Odisha-West Bengal coast, two major weather models, IMD-GFS and ECMWF, have indicated that the system may make landfall in Puri.

On the other hand, NCUM (G) model has indicated that the forecasted cyclone may cross near Bhubaneswar.

The IMD has mentioned about the indications by the models in its Tropical Weather Outlook issued today.

 

Indications by IMD-GFS and ECMWF

 

IMD-GFS model is indicating a low-pressure area over the eastern Bay of Bengal on the 21st of October at 00 UTC, which will develop into a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal on the 21st of October at 12 UTC. It is expected to strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal by the 23rd of October at 00 UTC and cross near Puri as a very severe cyclonic storm on the 25th of October at 00 UTC.

ECMWF model is predicting a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal on the 22nd of October at 03 UTC, which will become a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal by the 23rd of October at 00 UTC. It is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal by the 23rd of October at 09 UTC and cross near the Puri coast on the 25th of October at 06 UTC.

 

Indication by NCUM (G)

 

The NCUM (G) model indicates a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal on the 20th of October at 12 UTC, developing into a depression on the 21st of October at 06 UTC. The system will intensify into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the 23rd of October at 06 UTC and cross near Bhubaneswar on the 24th of October at 12 UTC.

 

Indication by other models

 

The NCEP GFS model is showing a low-pressure area over the north Andaman Sea on the 20th of October at 12 UTC, developing into a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal by the 21st of October at 00 UTC. It will intensify into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal by the 22nd of October at 00 UTC and cross the West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts on the 24th of October at 06 UTC as a very severe cyclonic storm or a higher category system.

The IMD MME model is indicating a low-pressure area over the north Andaman Sea on the 20th of October, a depression on the 21st of October at 00 UTC, and a cyclonic storm by the 22nd of October at 12 UTC. It is expected to move northwestwards towards northern Odisha and cross the coast around the 25th of October at 01 UTC.

*[UTC is 5 hours 30 minutes behind the Indian Standard Time (IST)]

 

Official Forecast by IMD

 

A Low Pressure Area is very likely to form over the Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea during next 24 hours.

It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression by 22nd October morning and into a cyclonic storm by 23rd October over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and reach northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha-West Bengal coasts by 24th October morning.

The forecast was issued by the agency on October 20.

 

Windfall Warning for Odisha

 

Gale wind speed reaching 90 kmph to 110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph is likely to prevail over Northwest adjoining West Central Bay of Bengal, along and off Odisha Coast on 24th October.