Bhubaneswar: Amid cyclone fear for Odisha in the month of October following several weather model predictions, a cyclonic circulation has formed over the Bay of Bengal today.

According to IMD, a cyclonic circulation formed over the central Andaman Sea today October 19. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman sea on October 21. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a depression over central Bay of Bengal by October 23. 

After the possible formation of low pressure, the wind speed will gradually increase over central Bay of Bengal and is likely to be 45-55 kmph by October 23. The wind speed may further increase over north Bay of Bengal after October 24. 

Under the influence of the above system, the coastal region of Odisha is likely to receive heavy rainfall from October 23. The quantum of rainfall is likely to increase on October 24, informed IMD DG Dr. Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra. 

When asked about a warning for Odisha due to the possible low pressure and depression, he said, "It is early to make an exact forecast on rainfall and wind speed to be caused by the system. This will be cleared once the low-pressure forms." 

On possible cyclone, he said, "It will be cleared after October 21. Though several models indicate a possible cyclonic storm, the IMD always comes with a contentious forecast." 

The IMD GFS is indicating low pressure area over east Bay of Bengal on October 22, a depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 24, cyclonic storm over central parts of Bay of Bengal on October 24 and northeast movement towards Odisha coast till October 26 and towards West Bengal coast by October 29. 

Similarly, the NCUM(G) is indicating a low pressure area over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Oct 21, depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Oct 23, cyclonic storm off North Andhra Pradesh coast on October 24 crossing over Andhra Pradesh coast on Oct 25. 

The ECMWF is indicating depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Oct 22, cyclonic storm over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Oct 23 and crossing over south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts on  Oct 25. 

The NCEP GFS is indicating low pressure over north Andaman sea on Oct 20, depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Oct 20, cyclonic storm over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Oct 21 and crossing over West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts on Oct 24 as a very severe cyclonic storm.