Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area is likely to form over the Central Bay of Bengal around October 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.

The forecasted system is likely to intensify further, the agency said.

"A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation is very likely to form over North Andaman Sea around 20th October. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the Central Bay of Bengal around 22nd October. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further," the IMD said in its bulletin.

On the other hand, noted meteorologist Jason Nicholls said a low pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal during the early part of the next week and can intensify into a cyclonic storm, threatening North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha during late next week.

While the Bay of Bengal usually churns cyclones in the month of October impacting Odisha most of the time, a similar system may form again as weather models are indicating so.

The IMD-GFS model is indicating the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 21, with northwestward movement towards the Odisha coast by October 24, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its Tropical Weather Outlook today.

The NCUM model is indicating the emergence of a cyclonic circulation from the Gulf of Thailand into the north Andaman Sea on October 24, developing into a low-pressure area (LPA) on October 25 over the north Andaman Sea and turning into a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 26, the outlook said.

Similarly, the NCEP-GFS model is indicating the emergence of a low-pressure area or cyclonic circulation into the north Andaman Sea on October 21 from the Gulf of Thailand, becoming a depression off the south Myanmar coast by October 21 (12 UTC). It is expected to develop into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 22 (06 UTC), intensifying further and moving nearly north-northwestward until October 22 (12 UTC), and then northward, reaching the Bangladesh coast by October 23 (18 UTC) as an intense cyclonic storm, the outlook added.