Bhubaneswar: While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that a low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around November 23, most weather models have indicated that the system may intensify into a cyclonic storm with movement towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts.

As per the IMD, a low pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 23rd November. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over central parts of the south Bay of Bengal around 25th November. It is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts subsequently, the IMD said in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued on Thursday.

The outlook further said that most weather models have indicated the system's intensification into a cyclonic storm.

Here are predictions by various weather models in connection with the forecasted system.

IMD GFS model indicates that the system is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by 24th November, thereafter while moving west-northwestwards intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm on 25th November and cross the north Sri Lanka coast and south Tamil Nadu coast during the night of 26th November.

NCEP GFS model also suggests the maximum intensity of the system reaching up to a very severe cyclonic storm. But the movement of the system is comparatively slower, more northwestward and weaken before it reaches near north Tamil Nadu coast on 28th November morning as a cyclonic storm. The model suggests landfall over north Tamil Nadu during the forenoon of 28th November as a deep depression.

ECMWF model indicates that the intensification of the system is very slow and the system is likely to intensify into a depression by 25th November morning over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast. Thereafter, the system is likely to move nearly northwestwards along Sri Lanka coast across southwest Bay of Bengal for two days and weaken reaching near Tamil Nadu coast on 27th November morning. Further weakening, it is likely to cross north Tamil Nadu coast on 28th Novmber morning as a low pressure area.

NCUMG model predicted an extended low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal off south Sri Lanka on 26th November. Thereafter, it moves northwards and gradually intensifies into a depression on 27th November over southwest Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast, into a cyclonic storm on 28th November over westcentral Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh coast. It is likely to recurve thereafter over westecentral Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh coast and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm on 29th and 30th November as it is likely to move northwestwards across westcentral Bay of Bengal.