Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 21 under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation lying over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining regions.

The system is expected to gradually intensify into a depression over the central parts of the South Bay of Bengal and adjoining west-central Bay within the subsequent 48 hours.

Indication by Weather Models

According to the IMD’s Tropical Weather Outlook, several weather models, including NCEP, ECMWF, ECAI, IMD GFS, GEFS, and BFS, have indicated the formation of the low-pressure system between October 20 and 21, which may strengthen into a depression between October 22 and 23. The models suggest that the system will move west-northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coast.

Some models, particularly the GFS group, have hinted at a possible higher intensification, indicating that the system could strengthen further. However, the IMD’s Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) shows that the system will likely remain a depression, crossing the South Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coast around October 24.

After landfall, it is expected to move northwestwards across South Peninsular India and may later emerge into the east-central Arabian Sea.

Will it affect Odisha?

At present, the IMD has not predicted any direct impact on Odisha from the developing system. If the system intensifies beyond a depression and alters its course, parts of Odisha may experience changes in weather conditions, such as cloud cover and rainfall.

The IMD is expected to issue further updates in the coming days as the system evolves over the Bay of Bengal.

Also read: IMD warns of intensifying twin weather systems over Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal.