Low Pressure likely around Nov 29; Conditions favourable for Cyclone formation over Bay of Bengal

Bhubaneswar: With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting the formation of a low pressure area over south Andaman Sea around November 29, the Bay of Bengal may witness another cyclonic storm as environmental conditions are favourable for the same.

As per Skymet Weather Services, environmental conditions will support intensification of the forecasted system. Two decisive factors– sea surface temperature and wind shear– will help in the growth and sustenance of the system for few days, after the formation of low pressure area.

Such perturbation over the oceanic surface has the potential to become tropical storm. Climatology and the seasonal aspects also favor formation of storm around this time of the year, said Skymet.

Northeast monsoon season usually witnesses one or two storms originating over Andaman Sea or an offshoot of remnant system from Gulf of Thailand. However, the maiden storm is yet to form during the season, this year. Hence, the possibility of the cyclone formation is fairly high, it said.

Such storms generally head towards Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Also, some of them reach close to the coast and start recurving, it added.

The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.

Intensity of the system is predicted to be that of a depression by majority of the weather models by 3rd December and further intensification into a severe category cyclone during subsequent 24-48 hours, the IMD said.

Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble are indicating that a fresh low pressure system would form over south Andaman Sea during 29th November–1st December (variation among the models as GFS group indicates low pressure area formation on 29th November and NCUM group on 1st December), the agency said.

All models indicate west-northwestward movement for the initial 2 days, followed by northwestward and then northward & northeastward track upto 4th or 5th December, it said.

The Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) of IMD also indicates potential zone over Andaman Sea on 30th November and 1st December. Though all these models are in agreement with the potential genesis and intensification over the Bay of Bengal, as on November 25, there is large uncertainty with respect to the likely movement.

“It may be concluded that a Low Pressure area is likely to form over south Andaman Sea & neighbourhood during the latter half of week -1 (26.11.2021-02.12.2021). After moving west-northwestwards, it could concentrate into a Depression towards the end of week-1, further intensify and move northward/ north-northeastwards towards central & adjoining north Bay of Bengal during the first half of week-2 (03.12.2021-09.12.2021). Accordingly a ‘moderate’ probability is assigned for cyclogenesis (formation of a Depression) over southeast BoB towards the end of week 1 and over central parts of the BoB during the initial half of week 2,” the IMD added.

Impact Expected and Action Suggested:

Squally weather with maximum sustained wind speed reaching 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over the genesis area (Andaman Sea and neighbourhood) during 30th November to 2nd December. Fishermen are advised to be cautious and avoid venturing into genesis area during 30th November to 2nd December. Tourists, boats and small ships are also advised to be cautious while venturing into sea during the period.

Adverse weather is likely to prevail over central and north BoB as the system moves further. Fishermen are advised to be cautious and avoid venturing into central and north BoB during 2nd to 5th December.

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