Bhubaneswar: The likelihood of a "city-killer" asteroid colliding with Earth in 2032 has increased to 3.1% (1 in 32), according to NASA. This rise in probability has sparked concerns, with a viral animation showcasing the potential catastrophic impact making rounds online.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, with an estimated diameter of approximately 177 feet (54 meters)—similar to the size of a building—may not be large enough to end civilization but could still cause widespread destruction if it hits a major city, reports LiveScience.

Despite the increasing probability, experts urge the public not to panic. Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, spoke to AFP, saying, "I'm not panicking. Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy. But as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely rise before eventually dropping to zero."

Viral Simulation Depicts Devastating Impact

A video simulation of the asteroid's potential impact has gained traction on social media. An X user shared the clip with the caption: "NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week. NASA says the odds of impact are 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city."

The simulation, created by renowned 3D animation artist Alvaro Gracia Montoya, vividly illustrates the destruction that would follow if the asteroid struck a densely populated area. The New York Post reports that the animation depicts a massive space rock levelling an entire metropolis.

First Detected in December 2023

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first identified on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Following its discovery, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defence organization, issued a warning in January 2024 when the probability of impact surpassed 1%. Since then, the probability has fluctuated but remains on an upward trend.

Current Predictions and Potential Scenarios

NASA’s most recent calculations suggest the asteroid has a 3.1% probability of striking Earth, with the estimated impact date being December 22, 2032. While this translates to a 1 in 32 chance of collision, experts emphasize that there is still a 96.9% likelihood that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely.

LiveScience also notes that based on NASA’s risk assessments, as more data is collected, the impact probability is expected to drop to 0%. Additionally, there is a minor 0.3% chance that the asteroid could collide with the moon instead of Earth.

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