Bhubaneswar: Major weather models have indicated formation of a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and movement towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh this month, a report by the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
There is variation among various models with respect to track of the system. NCUM group is indicating nearly westwards movement towards north Tamil Nadu. GFS and ECMWF are indicating nearly north-northwestwards movement towards north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha, the report said.
Most of the models are indicating intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm, it said.
A cyclonic circulation has formed over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood, the IMD said today.
Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 20, the agency said.
The system is likely to move west northwestwards towards west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and become more marked during the subsequent 48 hours, it added.
The report by the Cyclone Warning Division of the IMD said that a depression may form over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal around October 22.
The environmental conditions like Sea Surface Temperature and ocean thermal energy are favourable over south and central Bay of Bengal for formation of low pressure area/ depression. The La Nina conditions supported with negative IOD conditions will support the movement of remnant circulations from South China Sea to Andaman Sea with possible further intensification. However, MJO being in phase 6 with amplitude more than 1, will not be supportive for amplification of convection and hence the system, the report added.