Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic storm may form over the Bay of Bengal and make landfall around November 18, two major weather models indicated.
A low pressure area formed over south Andaman Sea and adjoining Thailand coast, this morning. Most of the models are indicating that the low pressure area would move west-northwestwards, concentrate into a depression over north Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around 15th November and reach Andhra Pradesh coast around 18th November, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, adding that the system is likely to intensify further after becoming depression.
However, there is large variation among various models w.r.t. intensification of the system.
IMD GFS and NCUM models are indicating intensification of the system into cyclonic storm.
On the other hand, ECMWF and NCEP GFS models are indicating intensification of the system up to depression stage.
The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.
NEPS-G model indicates that the system may cross the coast around Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh (See pic below).
14th Nov.: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
15th Nov.: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
16th Nov.: No heavy rainfall warning.
17th Nov.: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and heavy falls at isolated places over south coastal Odisha.
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely to prevail over Andaman Sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on 13th November, increase becoming 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over the same region on 14th & 15th, 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph over westcentral & adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal during 16th–18th November.
Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely to commence and along & off Andhra Pradesh & south Odisha coasts from 17 th November.
Wind and Rainfall warnings are likely to be updated by the IMD with gradual intensification of the system.