Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon rainfall in India during the 2025 season is likely to be above normal. This brings positive news for the country’s agriculture and water resources, as the monsoon plays a crucial role in sustaining both.

According to the long-range forecast issued by IMD, the monsoon rainfall across the country from June to September is expected to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. The LPA for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm, which serves as the benchmark for monsoon predictions.

Weather Conditions Behind the Forecast

1. ENSO Conditions: Currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although these conditions are neutral, atmospheric circulation patterns resemble La Niña, which generally supports good monsoon activity. Forecast models, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), suggest these neutral conditions are likely to persist throughout the monsoon season.

2. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Similar to ENSO, neutral IOD conditions are currently being observed over the Indian Ocean. Climate models also indicate that this neutral phase is likely to continue during the upcoming monsoon.

3. Snow Cover Influence: IMD also noted that snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia during January to March 2025 was below normal. Historically, reduced snow cover in these regions is associated with enhanced Indian monsoon rainfall, suggesting a favorable indicator for this year’s rains.

IMD will release an updated forecast in the last week of May 2025, which will include more region-specific rainfall estimates.