Bhubaneswar: Possible Cyclone ‘Asani’ over the Bay of Bengal may become a very severe cyclonic storm, indicated IMD GFS model.
“IMD GFS is indicating the system to intensity up to very severe category storm,” the North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
“Most of the deterministic models including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, NCUM (R), NCUM (G), ECMWF, IMD WRF, IMD MME and probabilistic models including GEFS, NEPS, ECMWF ensemble are indicating likely cyclogenesis (formation of depression) over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around May 8. The MME CFS (V2) is indicating >80% probability of cyclogenesis over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal,” the outlook said.
“However, there is large variation among various models with respect to intensification of the system. Most of the models are indicating the system to intensify up to a marginal cyclone. However, IMD GFS is indicating the system to intensity up to very severe category storm. Models are also unanimous about the northeastwards recurvature of the system,” it said.
“Considering available guidance from various sources, it is concluded that a low pressure area is likely to form over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal areas on May 6. There is high probability that the system would move northwestwards and intensify into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea during subsequent 48 hours,” it added.
The IMD was yet to make any official forecast regarding the landfall area of the forecasted system, which will be named as ‘Cyclone Asani’ in the case of intensification into a cyclonic storm.