Possible depression over Bay of Bengal on Nov 15 to become cyclone? Here’s what models indicate

Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the formation of a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal around November 13 and depression around November 15.

Though the agency was yet to make any prediction regarding further intensification of the possible depression into a cyclone, it said that some models are indicating formation of a cyclonic storm.

As per the IMD, a low pressure area is likely to form over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood by November 13. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over east central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on November 15.

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase, sea and environmental conditions are favourable for cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal during the forecast period. Some models are also indicating intensification of this system into a cyclonic storm, the agency said.

The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a Cyclonic Storm.

The IMD in its ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis’ issued yesterday had also hinted about the chances of cyclone formation.

“Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS and IMD GPP are indicating formation of depression over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast BoB during beginning of week 1 (12.11.2021-18.11.2021). NCUM and NEPS are also showing cyclogenesis over Andaman Sea but during later part of week 1. Most of the models are also indicating its intensification into a cyclonic storm and northwestwards movement towards Andhra Pradesh coast,” the IMD said in the outlook.

“ECMWF probabilistic model is indicating 30-60% probability of cyclogenesis over the region. MME CFS (V2) is showing 60-70% probability of cyclogenesis over Andaman Sea during first half of week 1. However, ECMWF deterministic model is not indicating any cyclogenesis during the forecast period,” the agency said.

“The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index currently lies in Phase 4 with amplitude close to 1. It will continue in same phase during the entire forecast period with amplitude gradually decreasing during week 1 and then increasing during week 2 (19.11.2021-25.11.2021). Thus, MJO phase is conducive for enhancement of convective activity and hence cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during entire forecast period,” the IMD added.

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