Some parts of the world are burning. Some parts are drowning and people everywhere are struggling to cope and in many cases to survive – particularly and always the poorest and most vulnerable. Against this backdrop of tragedy and rising climate anxiety, nations are preparing new climate pledges for submission early next year. 

Ahead of COP29 scheduled in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s Executive Director Inger Andersen said, "No more hot air, please. Use COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan to increase action now, set the stage for dramatically stronger NDCs (nationally determined contributions), and then go all out to get on the 1.5°C pathway by 2030. The sooner we strike out hard for a low-carbon, sustainable and prosperous future, the sooner we will get there – which will save lives, save money and protect the planetary systems upon which we all depend."

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost 
pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared with 2019 levels. For 2°C, emissions must fall 
28 per cent by 2030. Looking out to 2035 – the next milestone after 2030 to be included in NDC targets – emissions must fall 57 per cent for 1.5°C and 37 per cent for 2°C. 

As greenhouse gas emissions rose to a new high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023, the cuts required from today are larger; 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C. Current promises are nowhere near these levels, putting us on track for best-case global warming of 2.6°C this century and necessitating future costly and large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to bring down the 
overshoot.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era. We may not make it, but the only certain path to failure is not trying. And we must remember that we are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. 1.5 is better than 1.6 is better than 1.7. Every fraction of a degree matters in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot, Andersen said.

However, this report shows that it remains at least technically possible to get on a 1.5°C pathway. Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 per cent of the total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. Action on forests could deliver around 20 per cent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.

The deadline for countries to submit their next NDCs with mitigation targets for 2035 is only a few months away, at the time of writing. The fifteenth Emissions Gap Report has a special focus on what is required from these NDCs to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Its core message is that ambition means nothing without action – unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by existing policies and current NDCs, it will become impossible to reach a pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (>50 per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C (>66 per cent chance). The next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade. 

The report shows that there are large disparities between the current, per capita and historic emissions of major emitters and world regions. 

The greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions across the G20 members also increased in 2023 and accounted for 77 per cent of global emissions. If all African Union countries are added to the G20 total, more than doubling the number of countries from 44 to 99, total emissions increase by just 5 percentage points to 82 per cent. The six largest GHG emitters accounted for 63 per cent of global GHG emissions. By contrast, least developed countries accounted for only 3 per cent. 

In India, the total GHG emissions in 2023 was 4,140 MtCO2e (8%), the change in total GHG emissions during 2022–2023 was +6.1% and per capita GHG emissions in 2023 was 2.9 tCO2e/capita. 

Under current policies, global 2030 emissions are projected to be 57 GtCO2e (range: 53–59), which is slightly higher than last year’s assessment, and around 2 GtCO2e (range: 0–3 GtCO2e) above the unconditional NDCs and 5 GtCO2e (range: 2–9 GtCO2e) above the conditional NDCs (table ES.2). This gap in implementation of policies to achieve the NDCs for 2030 is about the same as in last year’s assessment. 

[Disclaimer: This story is a part of ‘Punascha Pruthibi – One Earth. Unite for It’, an awareness campaign by Sambad Digital.]