Bhubaneswar: As many as two cyclonic circulations may form over the Bay of Bengal within the next 13 days, as per the ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis’ issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The guidance from various numerical models including IMD GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, NCUM, NEPS, NCEP GFS do not indicate any cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean during the next two weeks. However, these models indicate likely formation of a cyclonic circulation over the north Bay of Bengal during middle of week 1 (23.09.2022 to 29.09.2022) and another over the central Bay of Bengal during middle of week 2 (30.09.2022 to 06.10.2022), the outlook said.
Various extended range forecast models including IMD MME CFS and NCMRWF NCUM also indicate likelihood of formation of a cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal and another over the central Bay of Bengal during week 1 and week 2, respectively, the outlook said.
Hence, considering the model guidance and various environmental features, it is inferred that there is likelihood of formation of a cyclonic circulation over north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during the middle of week 1 and another over central Bay of Bengal during week 2, the outlook concluded.