Bhubaneswar: While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially forecasted that a low pressure area is likely to form over the Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) around October 22 with chances of northwestwards movement and further intensification, most of the weather models are indicating movement of the system towards Odisha coast.

Indication by weather models

Most of the deterministic models (IMD GFS, GEFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, ECAI, NCUM-G, NEPS) are indicating emergence of a cyclonic circulation into North Andaman Sea around 20th October. Models (IMD GFS, GEFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, ECAI) are indicating intensification of this cyclonic circulation into a low pressure area over central BoB around 22nd October and depression by 24th October, the IMD said in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued today.

However, there is variation among models regarding peak intensification with ECMWF and GFS indicating depression intensity, and NCEP indicating intensification up to severe cyclonic storm. These models are also indicating movement of the system towards Odisha coast, the outlook said.

IMD CFS V2 850 hPa anomaly field is indicating a cyclonic anomaly over central BoB during week 1 (Oct 18 to Oct 24) and another over Odisha during beginning of week 2 (Oct 25 to Oct 31). The week 1 forecast of the NCMRWF ERF model also portrays similar features in the mean wind field, the outlook mentioned.

The IMD ERF model indicates a low to moderate probability (30-40%) of cyclogenesis over central and adjoining south BoB with an extension towards northwest BoB during week 1, it said.

The ECMWF ensemble forecast model also indicates moderate probability (40-50%) of cyclogenesis over the westcentral and adjoining northwest BoB during week 1, it added.

On the other hand, noted meteorologist Jason Nicholls said a low pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal during the early part of the next week and can intensify into a cyclonic storm, threatening North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha during late next week.

Impact Expected

Rough to very rough sea conditions over Andaman Sea during 21st to 23rd October, Central Bay of Bengal during 22nd-24th October and North Bay of Bengal during 24th-26th October and along & off coastal areas of Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bangladesh and Myanmar during 24th-26th October.

Advisory

1. Fishermen are advised not to venture into central Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea from 22nd to 24th October and north Bay of Bengal during 24th to 26th October.

2. Judicious regulation of Shipping, Port and Naval base activities during above period.

3. Tourism activities may be guided over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during 21st-23rd October.