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cyclonic storm Photograph: (Representative pic)
Bhubaneswar: The well-marked low pressure area over the Strait of Malacca and adjoining South Andaman sea is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours, said the IMD regional centre here today.
The system is very likely to move west-northwestwards further and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the South Bay of Bengal in the subsequent 48 hours, added the IMD regional centre.
The system will be named as ‘Cyclone Senyar’ once it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.
Here’s what models say about the possible path of ‘Cyclone Senyar’
The GFS group of models indicate a northeastwards re-curvature of the system as it crosses the upper-level ridge line. The system is likely reach south Bangladesh coast by December 2/December 3 with gradual weakening after re-curvature, they predict.
However, the ECMWF and NCUM-G models indicate that the system is likely to continue to move west-northeastwards over the south Andaman sea till November 26.
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Thereafter, the system is likely to move northeastwards and weaken gradually till November 29 and become less marked on November 30.
As per the prediction of the IMD regional centre, dry weather is very likely to prevail over the districts of Odisha till December 1.
Models predict another low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal
The models are also indicating that a low pressure area is likely to form over Comorin and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Srilanka around November 25.
The system is likely to move northeastwards across Sri Lanka initially and emerge into Southwest BoB around November 27 and intensify further.
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According to the models, the system is likely to move north-northwestwards alongside Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry and cross Andhra Pradesh coast as a weaker one around December 1.