Cyclone may form over Bay of Bengal in November as models indicate intensification of low pressure

Bhubaneswar: A fresh cyclonic storm may form over Bay of Bengal this month as weather models indicate intensification of a possible low pressure area.

IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS and IMD GPP models are indicating formation of depression over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during beginning of week 1 (12.11.2021-18.11.2021). Most of the models are also indicating its intensification into a cyclonic storm and movement towards Andhra Pradesh coast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

“Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS and IMD GPP are indicating formation of depression over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast BoB during beginning of week 1. NCUM and NEPS are also showing cyclogenesis over Andaman Sea but during later part of week 1. Most of the models are also indicating its intensification into a cyclonic storm and northwestwards movement towards Andhra Pradesh coast,” the IMD said.

“ECMWF probabilistic model is indicating 30-60% probability of cyclogenesis over the region. MME CFS (V2) is showing 60-70% probability of cyclogenesis over Andaman Sea during first half of week 1. However, ECMWF deterministic model is not indicating any cyclogenesis during the forecast period,” the agency said.

The system will be named as Cyclone Jawad if it intensifies into a Cyclonic Storm.

“The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index currently lies in Phase 4 with amplitude close to 1. It will continue in same phase during the entire forecast period with amplitude gradually decreasing during week 1 and then increasing during week 2 (19.11.2021-25.11.2021). Thus, MJO phase is conducive for enhancement of convective activity and hence cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during entire forecast period,” the IMD added.

It concluded that there is moderate probability of cyclogenesis over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during first half of week 1.

It has already forecasted the likely formation of a low pressure area over Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around November 13.