Cyclone Sitrang: Here’s what models indicate about landfall area and date

Bhubaneswar: With the formation of low pressure over Andaman sea, Cyclone Sitrang is very likely to form over westcentral Bay of Bengal around October 24.

According to IMD, A low pressure area formed over north Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of south Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal in the morning today. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a Depression over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around October 22 and into a Deep Depression on October 23. Subsequently, it is very likely to recurve northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal by October 24.

Thereafter, it is likely to move gradually north-northeastwards and reach West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts on October 25, striking Odisha coast.

Most of the models are indicating development of Depression by October 22 over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal. While the ECMWF and NCUM models predicted that the depression is likely to be formed on October 22, as per GFS model, it will be on October 23.

The models are further indicating intensification into a cyclonic storm on October 24 over westcentral Bay of Bengal. Some models are predicting that the cyclonic storm is likely to cross between West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts, both ECMWF and NCUM models indicate that it would cross slightly towards over West Bengal coast.

While the landfall date according to GFS and ECMWF models is October 25, the NCUM model is indicating early landfall around October 24.

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