Will Bay of Bengal host cyclone in October of 2023?

Bhubaneswar: October is regarded as the month of cyclone for Bay of Bengal and Odisha as they experience cyclonic storm in the month, almost every year.

As per the North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there is a likelihood of formation of low pressure area over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining area during the first half of ‘week 2’ (29.09.2023-05.10.2023) and a low probability (up to 33%) of cyclogenesis over the same region.

The NCEP GFS model forecasts indicate that a low pressure area would form over eastcentral-southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 29th September which is likely to move west-northwestward and intensify further into a depression over central Bay of Bengal and subsequently into a cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal during the next 3-4 days, the outlook said.

ECMWF and NCUM models are showing the formation of a low pressure area over central Bay of Bengal with intensification into depression during end of ‘week 1’ (22.09.2023-28.09.2023) around 28th September and move further west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts during first half of ‘week 2’, the outlook added.

International meteorologist Jason Nicholls has also made similar predictions.

“Conditions can become conducive for low & perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October,” he posted on X.

Conditions can become conducive for low & perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October. pic.twitter.com/AbWY04Ocsr

— Jason Nicholls 💙 (@jnmet) September 21, 2023