Bhubaneswar: The Bay of Bengal may host a Super Cyclone this month. Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was yet to make any forecast in this regard, a weather expert has made the prediction.
“A depression is likely to form on 17 October, which is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by 18 October,” Mostafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on weather and climate at Saskatchewan University in Canada was quoted as saying by Business Standard.
The system will be named as ‘Sitrang’ in the case of its intensification into a cyclonic storm.
The cyclone may make its landfall anywhere between Andhra Pradesh and Bangladesh, said Palash.
Citing the prediction by the GFS model, Palash further said that the system may become a super cyclone.
Its wind speed can be similar to that of Cyclone Amphan, he added.
The IMD:GFS model based on 00 UTC (5.30 AM IST) of 11 October 2022 and valid for 00 UTC of 21 October 2022 also indicated the presence of a system over the Bay of Bengal (see pic below).
The IMD has already forecasted that a cyclonic circulation may form over the Bay of Bengal in the second half of this month.
As per the prediction, the cyclonic circulation may form over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea during “week 2” (October 14 to October 20).
The forecasted system may move west-northwestwards with “low” probability (up to 33%) of further intensification.
“There is likelihood of formation of a cyclonic circulation over east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea during week 2 with low probability of its further intensification and west-northwestwards movement,” the IMD said in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis.